Riding profile

Eure-et-Loir — 1ère circonscription

Circonscription française — Eure-et-Loir

The question

Eure-et-Loir — 1ère circonscription: who wins this toss-up?

Editorial read

Eure-et-Loir — 1ère circonscription, a mixed riding in Eure-et-Loir, elected a member with the centrist bloc in the previous cycle, with a 0-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the centrist bloc ahead at 38% vote share, against 28% for the centrist bloc, and the race could swing.

Sitting member

Guillaume KASBARIAN

Sits with Centre (Ensemble)

Current forecast

Centre (Ensemble)

Toss-up

Probability
57%
Mean margin (pts)
9.8
P(close race)
86%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • RN and allies 37.6%
  • Centre (Ensemble) 27.8%
  • Left (NFP) 23.2%
  • LR and allies 8.4%
  • Others 2.0%
  • Far left 1.0%

In context

How this riding stacks up

RN and allies Centre (Ensemble) Left (NFP) LR and allies
HereEure-et-Loir — 1ère circonscription 37.6%27.8%23.2%8.4%
Provincial averageEure-et-Loir 43.5% −5.9 23.8% +3.9 20.5% +2.7 12.6% −4.2
National averageFrance 36.0% +1.7 20.6% +7.2 29.5% −6.3 12.2% −3.8

Provincial averages computed across the 577 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · FR LEG_2024

Won by
Centre (Ensemble)
Margin
0.0 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+9.8 pts

Detailed result · FR LEG_2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Emma MINOT RN and allies 20,576 33.7 —
Guillaume KASBARIAN Elected Centre (Ensemble) 20,105 32.9 —
Jean-François BRIDET Left (NFP) 14,705 24.1 —
Ladislas VERGNE LR and allies 4,388 7.2 —
Pierre-Louis DELAUNEY RN and allies 698 1.1 —
Marie-José AUBERT Far left 659 1.1 —

Around the region

Nearby ridings

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Last model run
Cycle
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