Riding profile
Eure-et-Loir — 4ème circonscription
The question
Eure-et-Loir — 4ème circonscription: will Centre (Ensemble) lose this seat to RN and allies?
Editorial read
Eure-et-Loir — 4ème circonscription, a mixed riding in Eure-et-Loir, elected a member with the centrist bloc in the previous cycle, with a 0-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the RN and its allies ahead at 48% vote share, against 34% for the centrist bloc, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
Philippe VIGIER
Sits with Centre (Ensemble)
Current forecast
RN and allies
Safe
- Probability
- 96%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 13.5
- P(close race)
- 8%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| RN and allies | Centre (Ensemble) | Left (NFP) | Others | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereEure-et-Loir — 4ème circonscription | 47.8% | 34.3% | 13.5% | 2.0% |
| Provincial averageEure-et-Loir | 43.5% +4.3 | 23.8% +10.5 | 20.5% −7.0 | 2.0% |
| National averageFrance | 36.0% +11.8 | 20.6% +13.7 | 29.5% −16.0 | 3.9% −1.9 |
Provincial averages computed across the 577 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Previous election · FR LEG_2024
Detailed result · FR LEG_2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roger PECOUT | RN and allies | 18,854 | 43.1 | — |
| Philippe VIGIER Elected | Centre (Ensemble) | 17,236 | 39.4 | — |
| Sylviane BOËNS | Left (NFP) | 6,243 | 14.3 | — |
| Vincent LHOPITEAU | RN and allies | 817 | 1.9 | — |
| Anne-Laure ASSAYAG | Far left | 548 | 1.3 | — |
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Eure-et-Loir — 1ère circonscriptionCentre (Ensemble) Toss-upOpen →
- Loiret — 2ème circonscriptionRN and allies Safe seatOpen →
- Eure-et-Loir — 3ème circonscriptionRN and allies Safe seatOpen →
- Loiret — 1ère circonscriptionCentre (Ensemble) CompetitiveOpen →
- Yvelines — 10ème circonscriptionCentre (Ensemble) CompetitiveOpen →
- Eure-et-Loir — 2ème circonscriptionRN and allies Safe seatOpen →
- Last model run
- Cycle
fr_leg_next