Riding profile

Loiret — 1ère circonscription

Circonscription française — Loiret

The question

Loiret — 1ère circonscription: who wins this toss-up?

Editorial read

Loiret — 1ère circonscription, a mixed riding in Loiret, elected a member with the centrist bloc in the previous cycle, with a 0-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the centrist bloc ahead at 33% vote share, against 32% for the RN and its allies, and the race could swing.

Sitting member

Stéphanie RIST

Sits with Centre (Ensemble)

Current forecast

Centre (Ensemble)

Toss-up

Probability
73%
Mean margin (pts)
1.1
P(close race)
50%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Centre (Ensemble) 33.3%
  • RN and allies 32.1%
  • Left (NFP) 30.6%
  • Others 2.0%
  • LR and allies 1.2%
  • Far left 0.7%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Centre (Ensemble) RN and allies Left (NFP) Others
HereLoiret — 1ère circonscription 33.3%32.1%30.6%2.0%
Provincial averageLoiret 20.8% +12.5 42.3% −10.2 24.5% +6.0 2.4% −0.4
National averageFrance 20.6% +12.7 36.0% −3.8 29.5% +1.1 3.9% −1.9

Provincial averages computed across the 577 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · FR LEG_2024

Won by
Centre (Ensemble)
Margin
0.0 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+1.1 pts

Detailed result · FR LEG_2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Stéphanie RIST Elected Centre (Ensemble) 16,775 31.6
Ghislaine KOUNOWSKI Left (NFP) 16,706 31.5
Tiffanie RABAULT RN and allies 14,880 28.0
Guillaume CHASSANG Centre (Ensemble) 3,620 6.8
Nicole MAURICE RN and allies 659 1.2
Claude TREPKA Far left 439 0.8
Last model run
Cycle
fr_leg_next