Riding profile
Loiret — 1ère circonscription
The question
Loiret — 1ère circonscription: who wins this toss-up?
Editorial read
Loiret — 1ère circonscription, a mixed riding in Loiret, elected a member with the centrist bloc in the previous cycle, with a 0-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the centrist bloc ahead at 33% vote share, against 32% for the RN and its allies, and the race could swing.
Sitting member
Stéphanie RIST
Sits with Centre (Ensemble)
Current forecast
Centre (Ensemble)
Toss-up
- Probability
- 73%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 1.1
- P(close race)
- 50%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Centre (Ensemble) | RN and allies | Left (NFP) | Others | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereLoiret — 1ère circonscription | 33.3% | 32.1% | 30.6% | 2.0% |
| Provincial averageLoiret | 20.8% +12.5 | 42.3% −10.2 | 24.5% +6.0 | 2.4% −0.4 |
| National averageFrance | 20.6% +12.7 | 36.0% −3.8 | 29.5% +1.1 | 3.9% −1.9 |
Provincial averages computed across the 577 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Previous election · FR LEG_2024
Detailed result · FR LEG_2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stéphanie RIST Elected | Centre (Ensemble) | 16,775 | 31.6 | — |
| Ghislaine KOUNOWSKI | Left (NFP) | 16,706 | 31.5 | — |
| Tiffanie RABAULT | RN and allies | 14,880 | 28.0 | — |
| Guillaume CHASSANG | Centre (Ensemble) | 3,620 | 6.8 | — |
| Nicole MAURICE | RN and allies | 659 | 1.2 | — |
| Claude TREPKA | Far left | 439 | 0.8 | — |
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Loiret — 2ème circonscriptionRN and allies Safe seatOpen →
- Loir-et-Cher — 2ème circonscriptionRN and allies Safe seatOpen →
- Eure-et-Loir — 4ème circonscriptionRN and allies Safe seatOpen →
- Loiret — 6ème circonscriptionRN and allies CompetitiveOpen →
- Loiret — 5ème circonscriptionRN and allies Safe seatOpen →
- Loir-et-Cher — 1ère circonscriptionCentre (Ensemble) Toss-upOpen →
- Last model run
- Cycle
fr_leg_next