Riding profile

Loiret — 2ème circonscription

Circonscription française — Loiret

The question

Loiret — 2ème circonscription: will Left (NFP) lose this seat to RN and allies?

Editorial read

Loiret — 2ème circonscription, a mixed riding in Loiret, elected a member with the united left in the previous cycle, with a 0-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the RN and its allies ahead at 37% vote share, against 31% for the united left, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Emmanuel DUPLESSY

Sits with Left (NFP)

Current forecast

RN and allies

Safe

Probability
93%
Mean margin (pts)
6.2
P(close race)
15%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • RN and allies 37.2%
  • Left (NFP) 31.0%
  • Centre (Ensemble) 18.1%
  • LR and allies 9.1%
  • Others 2.0%
  • Greens 2.0%
  • Far left 0.6%

In context

How this riding stacks up

RN and allies Left (NFP) Centre (Ensemble) LR and allies
HereLoiret — 2ème circonscription 37.2%31.0%18.1%9.1%
Provincial averageLoiret 42.3% −5.1 24.5% +6.5 20.8% −2.7 11.9% −2.8
National averageFrance 36.0% +1.2 29.5% +1.5 20.6% −2.5 12.2% −3.1

Provincial averages computed across the 577 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · FR LEG_2024

Won by
Left (NFP)
Margin
0.0 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+6.2 pts

Detailed result · FR LEG_2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Elodie BABIN RN and allies 18,957 32.9 —
Emmanuel DUPLESSY Elected Left (NFP) 16,148 28.0 —
Caroline JANVIER Centre (Ensemble) 13,263 23.0 —
Cyril COLAS LR and allies 4,527 7.9 —
Yann CHAILLOU Left (NFP) 1,951 3.4 —
Bruno CARRANI Greens 1,474 2.6 —
Marie-Odile DUVILLARD RN and allies 716 1.2 —
Farida MEGDOUD Far left 388 0.7 —
Ahmed AACHBOUN Left (NFP) 178 0.3 —

Around the region

Nearby ridings

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Last model run
Cycle
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