Riding profile

Loir-et-Cher — 1ère circonscription

Circonscription française — Loir-et-Cher

The question

Loir-et-Cher — 1ère circonscription: who wins this toss-up?

Editorial read

Loir-et-Cher — 1ère circonscription, a mixed riding in Loir-et-Cher, elected a member with the centrist bloc in the previous cycle, with a 0-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the centrist bloc ahead at 38% vote share, against 35% for the centrist bloc, and the race could swing.

Sitting member

Marc FESNEAU

Sits with Centre (Ensemble)

Current forecast

Centre (Ensemble)

Toss-up

Probability
66%
Mean margin (pts)
3.4
P(close race)
69%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • RN and allies 38.0%
  • Centre (Ensemble) 34.7%
  • Left (NFP) 14.5%
  • LR and allies 7.2%
  • Far left 3.3%
  • Others 2.3%

In context

How this riding stacks up

RN and allies Centre (Ensemble) Left (NFP) LR and allies
HereLoir-et-Cher — 1ère circonscription 38.0%34.7%14.5%7.2%
Provincial averageLoir-et-Cher 45.5% −7.4 32.9% +1.8 17.0% −2.5 11.3% −4.1
National averageFrance 36.0% +2.1 20.6% +14.1 29.5% −15.0 12.2% −5.1

Provincial averages computed across the 577 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · FR LEG_2024

Won by
Centre (Ensemble)
Margin
0.0 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+3.4 pts

Detailed result · FR LEG_2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Marine BARDET RN and allies 19,074 35.2 —
Marc FESNEAU Elected Centre (Ensemble) 18,711 34.5 —
Reda BELKADI Left (NFP) 8,311 15.3 —
Pierre Gilles PARRA LR and allies 3,220 6.0 —
Gildas VIEIRA Centre (Ensemble) 2,867 5.3 —
Alain LOMBARD Far left 1,828 3.4 —
François DASSONNEVILLE Others 138 0.3 —
Jean-Marc TRAN Others 4 0.0 —

Around the region

Nearby ridings

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Last model run
Cycle
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