Riding profile

Indre-et-Loire — 3ème circonscription

Circonscription française — Indre-et-Loire

The question

Indre-et-Loire — 3ème circonscription: who wins this toss-up?

Editorial read

Indre-et-Loire — 3ème circonscription, a mixed riding in Indre-et-Loire, elected a member with the centrist bloc in the previous cycle, with a 0-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the centrist bloc ahead at 37% vote share, against 28% for the centrist bloc, and the race could swing.

Sitting member

Henri ALFANDARI

Sits with Centre (Ensemble)

Current forecast

Centre (Ensemble)

Toss-up

Probability
62%
Mean margin (pts)
8.8
P(close race)
70%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • RN and allies 36.5%
  • Centre (Ensemble) 27.8%
  • Left (NFP) 24.7%
  • Others 8.3%
  • Far left 1.5%
  • LR and allies 1.2%

In context

How this riding stacks up

RN and allies Centre (Ensemble) Left (NFP) Others
HereIndre-et-Loire — 3ème circonscription 36.5%27.8%24.7%8.3%
Provincial averageIndre-et-Loire 34.7% +1.8 23.7% +4.0 29.4% −4.7 3.2% +5.0
National averageFrance 36.0% +0.6 20.6% +7.2 29.5% −4.8 3.9% +4.3

Provincial averages computed across the 577 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · FR LEG_2024

Won by
Centre (Ensemble)
Margin
0.0 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+8.8 pts

Detailed result · FR LEG_2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Henri ALFANDARI Elected Centre (Ensemble) 22,174 32.9 —
Jules ROBIN RN and allies 21,724 32.2 —
Sandra BARBIER Left (NFP) 17,240 25.6 —
Emmanuel FRANÇOIS Others 3,248 4.8 —
Christophe LEGENDRE Far left 1,060 1.6 —
Amin BRIMOU Others 1,004 1.5 —
Xavier BOURIN RN and allies 1,003 1.5 —

Around the region

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Last model run
Cycle
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