Riding profile

Indre-et-Loire — 5ème circonscription

Circonscription française — Indre-et-Loire

The question

Indre-et-Loire — 5ème circonscription: will Centre (Ensemble) lose this seat to RN and allies?

Editorial read

Indre-et-Loire — 5ème circonscription, a mixed riding in Indre-et-Loire, elected a member with the centrist bloc in the previous cycle, with a 0-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the RN and its allies ahead at 39% vote share, against 23% for the united left, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Sabine THILLAYE

Sits with Centre (Ensemble)

Current forecast

RN and allies

Safe

Probability
96%
Mean margin (pts)
16.2
P(close race)
8%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • RN and allies 39.4%
  • Left (NFP) 23.3%
  • Centre (Ensemble) 21.7%
  • LR and allies 12.5%
  • Others 2.0%
  • Far left 1.1%

In context

How this riding stacks up

RN and allies Left (NFP) Centre (Ensemble) LR and allies
HereIndre-et-Loire — 5ème circonscription 39.4%23.3%21.7%12.5%
Provincial averageIndre-et-Loire 34.7% +4.7 29.4% −6.2 23.7% −2.1 7.7% +4.9
National averageFrance 36.0% +3.4 29.5% −6.2 20.6% +1.1 12.2% +0.3

Provincial averages computed across the 577 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · FR LEG_2024

Won by
Centre (Ensemble)
Margin
0.0 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+16.2 pts

Detailed result · FR LEG_2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
François DUCAMP RN and allies 21,118 35.3 —
Sabine THILLAYE Elected Centre (Ensemble) 16,025 26.8 —
Marina COCCIA Left (NFP) 14,457 24.1 —
Constance BALES LR and allies 6,805 11.4 —
David BILLON RN and allies 809 1.4 —
Christine DELARUE Far left 700 1.2 —

Around the region

Nearby ridings

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Last model run
Cycle
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