Riding profile
Sarthe — 2ème circonscription
The question
Sarthe — 2ème circonscription: who wins this toss-up?
Editorial read
Sarthe — 2ème circonscription, a mixed riding in Sarthe, elected a member with the united left in the previous cycle, with a 0-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the RN and its allies ahead at 37% vote share, against 36% for the RN and its allies, and the race could swing.
Sitting member
Marietta KARAMANLI
Sits with Left (NFP)
Current forecast
RN and allies
Toss-up
- Probability
- 55%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 0.8
- P(close race)
- 91%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Left (NFP) | RN and allies | LR and allies | Others | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereSarthe — 2ème circonscription | 37.2% | 36.3% | 23.1% | 2.1% |
| Provincial averageSarthe | 26.0% +11.2 | 40.6% −4.3 | 9.9% +13.2 | 2.1% |
| National averageFrance | 29.5% +7.7 | 36.0% +0.4 | 12.2% +10.8 | 3.9% −1.9 |
Provincial averages computed across the 577 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Previous election · FR LEG_2024
Detailed result · FR LEG_2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marietta KARAMANLI Elected | Left (NFP) | 20,700 | 40.0 | — |
| François FEVRE | RN and allies | 18,282 | 35.3 | — |
| Samuel CHEVALLIER | LR and allies | 11,962 | 23.1 | — |
| Thomas HUBERT | Far left | 776 | 1.5 | — |
| Clément CHEURET | Others | 91 | 0.2 | — |
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Sarthe — 5ème circonscriptionRN and allies Safe seatOpen →
- Sarthe — 3ème circonscriptionRN and allies Safe seatOpen →
- Sarthe — 1ère circonscriptionRN and allies Toss-upOpen →
- Sarthe — 4ème circonscriptionRN and allies Safe seatOpen →
- Indre-et-Loire — 5ème circonscriptionRN and allies Safe seatOpen →
- Orne — 2ème circonscriptionRN and allies CompetitiveOpen →
- Last model run
- Cycle
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