Riding profile

Sarthe — 3ème circonscription

Circonscription française — Sarthe

The question

Sarthe — 3ème circonscription: will Centre (Ensemble) lose this seat to RN and allies?

Editorial read

Sarthe — 3ème circonscription, a mixed riding in Sarthe, elected a member with the centrist bloc in the previous cycle, with a 0-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the RN and its allies ahead at 47% vote share, against 24% for the centrist bloc, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Eric MARTINEAU

Sits with Centre (Ensemble)

Current forecast

RN and allies

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
23.3
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • RN and allies 47.4%
  • Centre (Ensemble) 24.1%
  • Left (NFP) 17.7%
  • LR and allies 6.3%
  • Others 2.0%
  • Far left 1.5%
  • Sovereignists 1.1%

In context

How this riding stacks up

RN and allies Centre (Ensemble) Left (NFP) LR and allies
HereSarthe — 3ème circonscription 47.4%24.1%17.7%6.3%
Provincial averageSarthe 40.6% +6.7 24.2% −0.1 26.0% −8.2 9.9% −3.6
National averageFrance 36.0% +11.4 20.6% +3.5 29.5% −11.7 12.2% −5.9

Provincial averages computed across the 577 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · FR LEG_2024

Won by
Centre (Ensemble)
Margin
0.0 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+23.3 pts

Detailed result · FR LEG_2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Romain LEMOIGNE RN and allies 23,637 42.5 —
Eric MARTINEAU Elected Centre (Ensemble) 16,209 29.2 —
Mathilde JACK Left (NFP) 10,319 18.6 —
Vincent GRUAU LR and allies 2,819 5.1 —
Raymond DE MALHERBE RN and allies 1,131 2.0 —
Maryse BRUTOUT Far left 885 1.6 —
Éric TROCHON Sovereignists 558 1.0 —

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
fr_leg_next