Riding profile

Sarthe — 4ème circonscription

Circonscription française — Sarthe

The question

Sarthe — 4ème circonscription: will Left (NFP) lose this seat to RN and allies?

Editorial read

Sarthe — 4ème circonscription, a mixed riding in Sarthe, elected a member with the united left in the previous cycle, with a 0-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the RN and its allies ahead at 42% vote share, against 25% for the united left, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Elise LEBOUCHER

Sits with Left (NFP)

Current forecast

RN and allies

Safe

Probability
99%
Mean margin (pts)
17.0
P(close race)
1%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • RN and allies 42.1%
  • Left (NFP) 25.1%
  • Centre (Ensemble) 20.8%
  • LR and allies 8.6%
  • Others 2.4%
  • Far left 1.0%

In context

How this riding stacks up

RN and allies Left (NFP) Centre (Ensemble) LR and allies
HereSarthe — 4ème circonscription 42.1%25.1%20.8%8.6%
Provincial averageSarthe 40.6% +1.4 26.0% −0.9 24.2% −3.4 9.9% −1.3
National averageFrance 36.0% +6.1 29.5% −4.4 20.6% +0.2 12.2% −3.7

Provincial averages computed across the 577 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · FR LEG_2024

Won by
Left (NFP)
Margin
0.0 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+17.0 pts

Detailed result · FR LEG_2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Marie-Caroline LE PEN RN and allies 20,584 39.3 —
Elise LEBOUCHER Elected Left (NFP) 13,600 25.9 —
Sylvie CASENAVE-PÉRÉ Centre (Ensemble) 13,565 25.9 —
Léo BRISARD LR and allies 2,316 4.4 —
Didier BARBET LR and allies 1,546 3.0 —
Thierry NOUCHY Far left 596 1.1 —
Jean-Michel BRUGADE Others 217 0.4 —

Around the region

Nearby ridings

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Last model run
Cycle
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