Riding profile
Mayenne — 1ère circonscription
The question
Mayenne — 1ère circonscription: a safe seat for the united left?
Editorial read
Mayenne — 1ère circonscription, a mixed riding in Mayenne, elected a member with the united left in the previous cycle, with a 0-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the united left ahead at 42% vote share, against 30% for the RN and its allies, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
Guillaume GAROT
Sits with Left (NFP)
Current forecast
Left (NFP)
Safe
- Probability
- 98%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 12.3
- P(close race)
- 3%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Left (NFP) | RN and allies | LR and allies | Others | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereMayenne — 1ère circonscription | 42.3% | 30.0% | 24.9% | 1.9% |
| Provincial averageMayenne | 27.5% +14.8 | 32.9% −2.9 | 12.2% +12.8 | 2.1% −0.2 |
| National averageFrance | 29.5% +12.8 | 36.0% −6.0 | 12.2% +12.7 | 3.9% −2.0 |
Provincial averages computed across the 577 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Previous election · FR LEG_2024
Detailed result · FR LEG_2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Guillaume GAROT Elected | Left (NFP) | 22,483 | 45.4 | — |
| Paule VEYRE DE SORAS | RN and allies | 14,161 | 28.6 | — |
| Vincent SAULNIER | LR and allies | 9,957 | 20.1 | — |
| Stéphanie HIBON ARTHUIS | LR and allies | 2,467 | 5.0 | — |
| Fabrice ROMIER | Far left | 465 | 0.9 | — |
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Mayenne — 3ème circonscriptionCentre (Ensemble) Safe seatOpen →
- Mayenne — 2ème circonscriptionCentre (Ensemble) Safe seatOpen →
- Orne — 1ère circonscriptionRN and allies Toss-upOpen →
- Sarthe — 4ème circonscriptionRN and allies Safe seatOpen →
- Sarthe — 1ère circonscriptionRN and allies Toss-upOpen →
- Orne — 3ème circonscriptionLR and allies Safe seatOpen →
- Last model run
- Cycle
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