Riding profile
Mayenne — 2ème circonscription
The question
Mayenne — 2ème circonscription: a safe seat for the centrist bloc?
Editorial read
Mayenne — 2ème circonscription, a mixed riding in Mayenne, elected a member with the centrist bloc in the previous cycle, with a 0-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the centrist bloc ahead at 35% vote share, against 30% for the centrist bloc, and the riding remains competitive.
Sitting member
Géraldine BANNIER
Sits with Centre (Ensemble)
Current forecast
Centre (Ensemble)
Competitive
- Probability
- 89%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 4.6
- P(close race)
- 22%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| RN and allies | Centre (Ensemble) | Left (NFP) | LR and allies | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereMayenne — 2ème circonscription | 34.6% | 30.1% | 21.9% | 10.3% |
| Provincial averageMayenne | 32.9% +1.8 | 36.8% −6.7 | 27.5% −5.6 | 12.2% −1.8 |
| National averageFrance | 36.0% −1.3 | 20.6% +9.5 | 29.5% −7.6 | 12.2% −1.9 |
Provincial averages computed across the 577 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Previous election · FR LEG_2024
Detailed result · FR LEG_2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Géraldine BANNIER Elected | Centre (Ensemble) | 18,746 | 35.2 | — |
| Jean-Michel CADENAS | RN and allies | 16,944 | 31.8 | — |
| Grégory BOISSEAU | Left (NFP) | 12,135 | 22.8 | — |
| Pierre-Elie GUYON | LR and allies | 4,877 | 9.2 | — |
| Jean-Luc PLACE | Far left | 390 | 0.7 | — |
| Patrice GRUDE | Others | 209 | 0.4 | — |
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Maine-et-Loire — 1ère circonscriptionLeft (NFP) Toss-upOpen →
- Mayenne — 1ère circonscriptionLeft (NFP) Safe seatOpen →
- Maine-et-Loire — 7ème circonscriptionCentre (Ensemble) Toss-upOpen →
- Mayenne — 3ème circonscriptionCentre (Ensemble) Safe seatOpen →
- Sarthe — 4ème circonscriptionRN and allies Safe seatOpen →
- Maine-et-Loire — 2ème circonscriptionCentre (Ensemble) Safe seatOpen →
- Last model run
- Cycle
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