Riding profile

Maine-et-Loire — 2ème circonscription

Circonscription française — Maine-et-Loire

The question

Maine-et-Loire — 2ème circonscription: a safe seat for the centrist bloc?

Editorial read

Maine-et-Loire — 2ème circonscription, a mixed riding in Maine-et-Loire, elected a member with the centrist bloc in the previous cycle, with a 0-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the centrist bloc ahead at 32% vote share, against 27% for the united left, and the riding remains competitive.

Sitting member

Stella DUPONT

Sits with Centre (Ensemble)

Current forecast

Centre (Ensemble)

Competitive

Probability
91%
Mean margin (pts)
4.7
P(close race)
17%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Centre (Ensemble) 32.1%
  • Left (NFP) 27.4%
  • RN and allies 27.1%
  • LR and allies 10.1%
  • Others 2.0%
  • Far left 1.2%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Centre (Ensemble) Left (NFP) RN and allies LR and allies
HereMaine-et-Loire — 2ème circonscription 32.1%27.4%27.1%10.1%
Provincial averageMaine-et-Loire 27.3% +4.8 24.5% +2.9 32.8% −5.7 11.1% −1.0
National averageFrance 20.6% +11.5 29.5% −2.1 36.0% −8.8 12.2% −2.1

Provincial averages computed across the 577 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · FR LEG_2024

Won by
Centre (Ensemble)
Margin
0.0 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+4.7 pts

Detailed result · FR LEG_2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Stella DUPONT Elected Centre (Ensemble) 21,761 33.1 —
Léo METAYER Left (NFP) 18,621 28.3 —
Thomas BRISSEAU RN and allies 15,945 24.3 —
Benoît TRIOT LR and allies 5,864 8.9 —
Bertrand SALQUAIN Centre (Ensemble) 2,719 4.1 —
Philippe LEBRUN Far left 834 1.3 —

Around the region

Nearby ridings

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Last model run
Cycle
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