Riding profile

Maine-et-Loire — 5ème circonscription

Circonscription française — Maine-et-Loire

The question

Maine-et-Loire — 5ème circonscription: who wins this toss-up?

Editorial read

Maine-et-Loire — 5ème circonscription, a mixed riding in Maine-et-Loire, elected a member with the centrist bloc in the previous cycle, with a 0-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the centrist bloc ahead at 35% vote share, against 29% for the centrist bloc, and the race could swing.

Sitting member

Denis MASSEGLIA

Sits with Centre (Ensemble)

Current forecast

Centre (Ensemble)

Toss-up

Probability: 70%
Mean margin (pts): 5.9
P(close race): 61%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

RN and allies 34.5%
Centre (Ensemble) 28.6%
Left (NFP) 20.5%
LR and allies 11.4%
Others 2.0%
Sovereignists 1.6%
Far left 1.5%

In context

How this riding stacks up

	RN and allies	Centre (Ensemble)	Left (NFP)	LR and allies
HereMaine-et-Loire — 5ème circonscription	34.5%	28.6%	20.5%	11.4%
Provincial averageMaine-et-Loire	32.8% +1.7	27.3% +1.3	24.5% −4.1	11.1% +0.3
National averageFrance	36.0% −1.5	20.6% +8.0	29.5% −9.0	12.2% −0.8

Provincial averages computed across the 577 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · FR LEG_2024

Won by

Centre (Ensemble)

Margin

0.0 pts

Margin shift vs current projection

+5.9 pts

Detailed result · FR LEG_2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate	Party	Votes	%	Occupation
Denis MASSEGLIA Elected	Centre (Ensemble)	17,730	33.7	—
Gilles BOURDOULEIX	RN and allies	16,066	30.5	—
France MOREAU	Left (NFP)	11,220	21.3	—
Jacquelin LIGOT	LR and allies	5,362	10.2	—
Frédéric GUYARD	Sovereignists	822	1.6	—
Didier TESTU	Far left	821	1.6	—
Véronique ESTANG	RN and allies	583	1.1	—

Around the region

Nearby ridings

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Last model run: July 11, 2026
Cycle: fr_leg_next