Riding profile

Loire-Atlantique — 10ème circonscription

Circonscription française — Loire-Atlantique

The question

Loire-Atlantique — 10ème circonscription: who wins this toss-up?

Editorial read

Loire-Atlantique — 10ème circonscription, a mixed riding in Loire-Atlantique, elected a member with the centrist bloc in the previous cycle, with a 0-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the united left ahead at 30% vote share, against 29% for the RN and its allies, and the race could swing.

Sitting member

Sophie ERRANTE

Sits with Centre (Ensemble)

Current forecast

Left (NFP)

Toss-up

Probability
62%
Mean margin (pts)
1.1
P(close race)
63%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Left (NFP) 30.2%
  • RN and allies 29.0%
  • Centre (Ensemble) 25.5%
  • LR and allies 11.0%
  • Others 2.0%
  • Sovereignists 1.4%
  • Far left 0.9%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Left (NFP) RN and allies Centre (Ensemble) LR and allies
HereLoire-Atlantique — 10ème circonscription 30.2%29.0%25.5%11.0%
Provincial averageLoire-Atlantique 37.4% −7.2 27.5% +1.6 23.3% +2.2 11.9% −0.9
National averageFrance 29.5% +0.7 36.0% −6.9 20.6% +4.9 12.2% −1.2

Provincial averages computed across the 577 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · FR LEG_2024

Won by
Centre (Ensemble)
Margin
0.0 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+1.1 pts

Detailed result · FR LEG_2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Sophie ERRANTE Elected Centre (Ensemble) 27,555 30.6 —
Maxime VIANCIN Left (NFP) 25,055 27.8 —
Stéphanie COTREL RN and allies 23,574 26.2 —
Xavier RINEAU LR and allies 8,889 9.9 —
Bruno CHEVALIER Left (NFP) 2,947 3.3 —
Jacques COUSIN Sovereignists 1,211 1.3 —
Emmanuèle GARDAIR Far left 893 1.0 —

Around the region

Nearby ridings

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Last model run
Cycle
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