Riding profile

Loire-Atlantique — 5ème circonscription

Circonscription française — Loire-Atlantique

The question

Loire-Atlantique — 5ème circonscription: a safe seat for the united left?

Editorial read

Loire-Atlantique — 5ème circonscription, a mixed riding in Loire-Atlantique, elected a member with the united left in the previous cycle, with a 0-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the united left ahead at 37% vote share, against 31% for the centrist bloc, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Fabrice ROUSSEL

Sits with Left (NFP)

Current forecast

Left (NFP)

Safe

Probability
94%
Mean margin (pts)
5.7
P(close race)
12%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Left (NFP) 36.8%
  • Centre (Ensemble) 31.1%
  • RN and allies 27.6%
  • Others 2.0%
  • Far left 1.3%
  • LR and allies 1.2%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Left (NFP) Centre (Ensemble) RN and allies Others
HereLoire-Atlantique — 5ème circonscription 36.8%31.1%27.6%2.0%
Provincial averageLoire-Atlantique 37.4% −0.6 23.3% +7.8 27.5% +0.2 2.4% −0.4
National averageFrance 29.5% +7.3 20.6% +10.5 36.0% −8.4 3.9% −1.9

Provincial averages computed across the 577 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · FR LEG_2024

Won by
Left (NFP)
Margin
0.0 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+5.7 pts

Detailed result · FR LEG_2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Fabrice ROUSSEL Elected Left (NFP) 34,673 37.7 —
Sarah EL HAÏRY Centre (Ensemble) 33,241 36.2 —
Bruno COMBY RN and allies 22,722 24.7 —
Emmanuelle CLOPEAU Far left 1,261 1.4 —

Around the region

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Last model run
Cycle
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