Riding profile

Loire-Atlantique — 2ème circonscription

Circonscription française — Loire-Atlantique

The question

Loire-Atlantique — 2ème circonscription: a safe seat for the united left?

Editorial read

Loire-Atlantique — 2ème circonscription, a mixed riding in Loire-Atlantique, elected a member with the united left in the previous cycle, with a 0-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the united left ahead at 52% vote share, against 22% for the centrist bloc, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Andy KERBRAT

Sits with Left (NFP)

Current forecast

Left (NFP)

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
30.2
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Left (NFP) 51.8%
  • Centre (Ensemble) 21.6%
  • RN and allies 16.7%
  • LR and allies 7.1%
  • Others 2.0%
  • Far left 0.7%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Left (NFP) Centre (Ensemble) RN and allies LR and allies
HereLoire-Atlantique — 2ème circonscription 51.8%21.6%16.7%7.1%
Provincial averageLoire-Atlantique 37.4% +14.4 23.3% −1.7 27.5% −10.7 11.9% −4.9
National averageFrance 29.5% +22.3 20.6% +1.1 36.0% −19.2 12.2% −5.2

Provincial averages computed across the 577 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · FR LEG_2024

Won by
Left (NFP)
Margin
0.0 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+30.2 pts

Detailed result · FR LEG_2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Andy KERBRAT Elected Left (NFP) 34,341 51.7 —
Valérie OPPELT Centre (Ensemble) 17,744 26.7 —
Nolwenn FER RN and allies 9,157 13.8 —
Louisa AMROUCHE LR and allies 3,893 5.9 —
Adrien COPROS Left (NFP) 786 1.2 —
Nicolas BAZILLE Far left 542 0.8 —
Nicolas VABRE Far left 0 0.0 —
Zora CHIGNOLE Others 0 0.0 —

Around the region

Nearby ridings

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Last model run
Cycle
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