Riding profile

Loire-Atlantique — 9ème circonscription

Circonscription française — Loire-Atlantique

The question

Loire-Atlantique — 9ème circonscription: who wins this toss-up?

Editorial read

Loire-Atlantique — 9ème circonscription, a mixed riding in Loire-Atlantique, elected a member with the LR right in the previous cycle, with a 0-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the LR right ahead at 35% vote share, against 32% for the LR right, and the race could swing.

Sitting member

Jean-Michel BRARD

Sits with LR and allies

Current forecast

LR and allies

Toss-up

Probability
76%
Mean margin (pts)
2.9
P(close race)
49%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • RN and allies 35.1%
  • LR and allies 32.3%
  • Left (NFP) 24.4%
  • Others 3.1%
  • Greens 2.3%
  • Sovereignists 1.8%
  • Far left 1.1%

In context

How this riding stacks up

RN and allies LR and allies Left (NFP) Others
HereLoire-Atlantique — 9ème circonscription 35.1%32.3%24.4%3.1%
Provincial averageLoire-Atlantique 27.5% +7.7 11.9% +20.3 37.4% −13.0 2.4% +0.7
National averageFrance 36.0% −0.8 12.2% +20.1 29.5% −5.1 3.9% −0.9

Provincial averages computed across the 577 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · FR LEG_2024

Won by
LR and allies
Margin
0.0 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+2.9 pts

Detailed result · FR LEG_2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Jean-Michel BRARD Elected LR and allies 29,952 32.6 —
Bastian MALDINEY RN and allies 29,841 32.5 —
Hélène MACON Left (NFP) 24,197 26.4 —
Annie LE GAL LA SALLE Greens 2,713 3.0 —
Aurore PAPOT Sovereignists 1,636 1.8 —
Laurent CHOMARD RN and allies 1,209 1.3 —
Annie HERVO Far left 1,134 1.2 —
Yannis BIZIEN Others 1,122 1.2 —

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
fr_leg_next