Riding profile

Loire-Atlantique — 8ème circonscription

Circonscription française — Loire-Atlantique

The question

Loire-Atlantique — 8ème circonscription: a safe seat for the united left?

Editorial read

Loire-Atlantique — 8ème circonscription, a mixed riding in Loire-Atlantique, elected a member with the united left in the previous cycle, with a 0-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the united left ahead at 44% vote share, against 32% for the RN and its allies, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Matthias TAVEL

Sits with Left (NFP)

Current forecast

Left (NFP)

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
12.3
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Left (NFP) 44.1%
  • RN and allies 31.7%
  • Centre (Ensemble) 15.3%
  • LR and allies 5.5%
  • Others 2.0%
  • Far left 1.4%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Left (NFP) RN and allies Centre (Ensemble) LR and allies
HereLoire-Atlantique — 8ème circonscription 44.1%31.7%15.3%5.5%
Provincial averageLoire-Atlantique 37.4% +6.7 27.5% +4.3 23.3% −8.0 11.9% −6.5
National averageFrance 29.5% +14.6 36.0% −4.2 20.6% −5.3 12.2% −6.7

Provincial averages computed across the 577 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · FR LEG_2024

Won by
Left (NFP)
Margin
0.0 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+12.3 pts

Detailed result · FR LEG_2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Matthias TAVEL Elected Left (NFP) 18,317 31.0 —
Gauthier BOUCHET RN and allies 17,065 28.9 —
Audrey DUFEU Centre (Ensemble) 11,991 20.3 —
Xavier PERRIN Left (NFP) 8,327 14.1 —
Florence BEUVELET LR and allies 2,525 4.3 —
Eddy LE BELLER Far left 890 1.5 —

Around the region

Nearby ridings

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Last model run
Cycle
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