Riding profile

Morbihan — 4ème circonscription

Circonscription française — Morbihan

The question

Morbihan — 4ème circonscription: a safe seat for another bloc?

Editorial read

Morbihan — 4ème circonscription, a mixed riding in Morbihan, elected a member with another bloc in the previous cycle, with a 0-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects another bloc ahead at 38% vote share, against 35% for the RN and its allies, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Paul MOLAC

Sits with Others

Current forecast

Others

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
3.3
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Others 37.9%
  • RN and allies 34.6%
  • Left (NFP) 13.9%
  • Centre (Ensemble) 10.5%
  • LR and allies 1.2%
  • Sovereignists 1.2%
  • Far left 0.5%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Others RN and allies Left (NFP) Centre (Ensemble)
HereMorbihan — 4ème circonscription 37.9%34.6%13.9%10.5%
Provincial averageMorbihan 8.8% +29.1 33.8% +0.7 24.3% −10.4 25.6% −15.1
National averageFrance 3.9% +33.9 36.0% −1.4 29.5% −15.6 20.6% −10.0

Provincial averages computed across the 577 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · FR LEG_2024

Won by
Others
Margin
0.0 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+3.3 pts

Detailed result · FR LEG_2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Paul MOLAC Elected Others 28,912 35.8 —
Katel LE CUILLIER RN and allies 25,414 31.5 —
Rozenn GUEGAN Centre (Ensemble) 12,487 15.5 —
Lhea LE FLECHER Left (NFP) 11,809 14.6 —
Bernard HUET Sovereignists 920 1.1 —
Khaled MAMAR Greens 602 0.8 —
Patrice CRUNIL Far left 515 0.6 —

Around the region

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Last model run
Cycle
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