Riding profile

Morbihan — 1ère circonscription

Circonscription française — Morbihan

The question

Morbihan — 1ère circonscription: a safe seat for the centrist bloc?

Editorial read

Morbihan — 1ère circonscription, a mixed riding in Morbihan, elected a member with the centrist bloc in the previous cycle, with a 0-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the centrist bloc ahead at 37% vote share, against 30% for the united left, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Anne LE HÉNANFF

Sits with Centre (Ensemble)

Current forecast

Centre (Ensemble)

Safe

Probability
96%
Mean margin (pts)
7.4
P(close race)
8%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Centre (Ensemble) 37.0%
  • Left (NFP) 29.6%
  • RN and allies 28.3%
  • Others 3.5%
  • LR and allies 1.2%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Centre (Ensemble) Left (NFP) RN and allies Others
HereMorbihan — 1ère circonscription 37.0%29.6%28.3%3.5%
Provincial averageMorbihan 25.6% +11.4 24.3% +5.3 33.8% −5.6 8.8% −5.3
National averageFrance 20.6% +16.4 29.5% +0.1 36.0% −7.7 3.9% −0.5

Provincial averages computed across the 577 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · FR LEG_2024

Won by
Centre (Ensemble)
Margin
0.0 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+7.4 pts

Detailed result · FR LEG_2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Anne LE HÉNANFF Elected Centre (Ensemble) 35,627 42.1 —
Anne GALLO Left (NFP) 23,884 28.2 —
Joseph MARTIN RN and allies 21,454 25.4 —
Yann LE BARAILLEC Left (NFP) 1,898 2.2 —
Ronan LE SANT Others 1,084 1.3 —
Marc PESCHANSKI Far left 432 0.5 —
Alice VASSEUR Others 182 0.2 —

Around the region

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Last model run
Cycle
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