Riding profile

Morbihan — 3ème circonscription

Circonscription française — Morbihan

The question

Morbihan — 3ème circonscription: will Centre (Ensemble) lose this seat to RN and allies?

Editorial read

Morbihan — 3ème circonscription, a mixed riding in Morbihan, elected a member with the centrist bloc in the previous cycle, with a 0-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the RN and its allies ahead at 39% vote share, against 22% for the centrist bloc, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Nicole LE PEIH

Sits with Centre (Ensemble)

Current forecast

RN and allies

Safe

Probability
98%
Mean margin (pts)
17.3
P(close race)
3%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • RN and allies 38.9%
  • Centre (Ensemble) 21.6%
  • Left (NFP) 19.7%
  • LR and allies 13.4%
  • Others 3.6%
  • Sovereignists 1.1%
  • Far left 0.9%
  • Greens 0.8%

In context

How this riding stacks up

RN and allies Centre (Ensemble) Left (NFP) LR and allies
HereMorbihan — 3ème circonscription 38.9%21.6%19.7%13.4%
Provincial averageMorbihan 33.8% +5.1 25.6% −4.0 24.3% −4.6 5.6% +7.8
National averageFrance 36.0% +2.9 20.6% +1.1 29.5% −9.8 12.2% +1.2

Provincial averages computed across the 577 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · FR LEG_2024

Won by
Centre (Ensemble)
Margin
0.0 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+17.3 pts

Detailed result · FR LEG_2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Antoine OLIVIERO RN and allies 24,584 35.9 —
Nicole LE PEIH Elected Centre (Ensemble) 18,222 26.6 —
Marie Madeleine DORÉ-LUCAS Left (NFP) 13,999 20.4 —
Soizic PERRAULT LR and allies 8,340 12.2 —
Jocelyne DEVRIENDT Others 1,078 1.6 —
Lionel ÉPAILLARD Greens 943 1.4 —
Julie CUCINIELLO Sovereignists 719 1.1 —
Julie LEPERT Far left 688 1.0 —

Around the region

Nearby ridings

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Last model run
Cycle
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