Riding profile

Morbihan — 6ème circonscription

Circonscription française — Morbihan

The question

Morbihan — 6ème circonscription: who wins this toss-up?

Editorial read

Morbihan — 6ème circonscription, a mixed riding in Morbihan, elected a member with the centrist bloc in the previous cycle, with a 0-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the RN and its allies ahead at 38% vote share, against 28% for the centrist bloc, and the race could swing.

Sitting member

Jean-Michel JACQUES

Sits with Centre (Ensemble)

Current forecast

RN and allies

Toss-up

Probability
56%
Mean margin (pts)
9.6
P(close race)
89%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • RN and allies 37.5%
  • Centre (Ensemble) 28.0%
  • Left (NFP) 22.9%
  • LR and allies 6.6%
  • Others 2.0%
  • Far left 1.8%
  • Sovereignists 1.3%

In context

How this riding stacks up

RN and allies Centre (Ensemble) Left (NFP) LR and allies
HereMorbihan — 6ème circonscription 37.5%28.0%22.9%6.6%
Provincial averageMorbihan 33.8% +3.7 25.6% +2.4 24.3% −1.4 5.6% +0.9
National averageFrance 36.0% +1.5 20.6% +7.4 29.5% −6.6 12.2% −5.6

Provincial averages computed across the 577 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · FR LEG_2024

Won by
Centre (Ensemble)
Margin
0.0 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+9.6 pts

Detailed result · FR LEG_2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Nathalie GUIHOT-VIEIRA RN and allies 22,728 34.7
Jean-Michel JACQUES Elected Centre (Ensemble) 21,675 33.1
Jean-Michel BAUDRY Left (NFP) 15,561 23.8
Daniel BARACH LR and allies 3,513 5.4
Kelig LAGREE Far left 1,213 1.9
Valère CHARLERY Sovereignists 835 1.3
Last model run
Cycle
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