Riding profile

Côtes-d'Armor — 4ème circonscription

Circonscription française — Côtes-d'Armor

The question

Côtes-d'Armor — 4ème circonscription: will Left (NFP) lose this seat to RN and allies?

Editorial read

Côtes-d'Armor — 4ème circonscription, a mixed riding in Côtes-d'Armor, elected a member with the united left in the previous cycle, with a 0-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the RN and its allies ahead at 39% vote share, against 30% for the united left, and the riding remains competitive.

Sitting member

Murielle LEPVRAUD

Sits with Left (NFP)

Current forecast

RN and allies

Competitive

Probability
80%
Mean margin (pts)
8.5
P(close race)
35%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • RN and allies 38.6%
  • Left (NFP) 30.1%
  • Centre (Ensemble) 25.5%
  • Far left 2.5%
  • Others 2.0%
  • LR and allies 1.2%

In context

How this riding stacks up

RN and allies Left (NFP) Centre (Ensemble) Far left
HereCôtes-d'Armor — 4ème circonscription 38.6%30.1%25.5%2.5%
Provincial averageCôtes-d'Armor 32.9% +5.7 27.3% +2.9 24.9% +0.5 1.6% +0.9
National averageFrance 36.0% +2.6 29.5% +0.6 20.6% +4.9 1.1% +1.4

Provincial averages computed across the 577 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · FR LEG_2024

Won by
Left (NFP)
Margin
0.0 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+8.5 pts

Detailed result · FR LEG_2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Noël LUDE RN and allies 19,700 34.3
Murielle LEPVRAUD Elected Left (NFP) 17,826 31.0
Cyril JOBIC Centre (Ensemble) 17,555 30.6
Sylvie LIRONCOURT Far left 1,505 2.6
Danielle LE MEN RN and allies 854 1.5
Last model run
Cycle
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