Riding profile

Morbihan — 2ème circonscription

Circonscription française — Morbihan

The question

Morbihan — 2ème circonscription: who wins this toss-up?

Editorial read

Morbihan — 2ème circonscription, a mixed riding in Morbihan, elected a member with the centrist bloc in the previous cycle, with a 0-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the centrist bloc ahead at 33% vote share, against 27% for the centrist bloc, and the race could swing.

Sitting member

Jimmy PAHUN

Sits with Centre (Ensemble)

Current forecast

Centre (Ensemble)

Toss-up

Probability
65%
Mean margin (pts)
5.9
P(close race)
62%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • RN and allies 32.9%
  • Centre (Ensemble) 27.0%
  • Left (NFP) 24.9%
  • LR and allies 10.2%
  • Others 3.9%
  • Far left 1.0%

In context

How this riding stacks up

RN and allies Centre (Ensemble) Left (NFP) LR and allies
HereMorbihan — 2ème circonscription 32.9%27.0%24.9%10.2%
Provincial averageMorbihan 33.8% −0.9 25.6% +1.4 24.3% +0.7 5.6% +4.5
National averageFrance 36.0% −3.1 20.6% +6.5 29.5% −4.6 12.2% −2.0

Provincial averages computed across the 577 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · FR LEG_2024

Won by
Centre (Ensemble)
Margin
0.0 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+5.9 pts

Detailed result · FR LEG_2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Jimmy PAHUN Elected Centre (Ensemble) 26,667 32.1
Florent DE KERSAUSON RN and allies 24,920 30.0
Jade BENIGUEL Left (NFP) 21,405 25.8
Pierre CLAVREUIL LR and allies 7,472 9.0
Maëlig TRÉDAN Others 1,615 1.9
Yves CHEÈRE Far left 899 1.1
Last model run
Cycle
fr_leg_next