Riding profile

Loire-Atlantique — 1ère circonscription

Circonscription française — Loire-Atlantique

The question

Loire-Atlantique — 1ère circonscription: a safe seat for the united left?

Editorial read

Loire-Atlantique — 1ère circonscription, a mixed riding in Loire-Atlantique, elected a member with the united left in the previous cycle, with a 0-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the united left ahead at 42% vote share, against 32% for the centrist bloc, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Karim BENBRAHIM

Sits with Left (NFP)

Current forecast

Left (NFP)

Safe

Probability: 99%
Mean margin (pts): 10.0
P(close race): 1%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

Left (NFP) 42.2%
Centre (Ensemble) 32.3%
RN and allies 21.1%
Others 2.0%
LR and allies 1.2%
Far left 1.2%

In context

How this riding stacks up

	Left (NFP)	Centre (Ensemble)	RN and allies	Others
HereLoire-Atlantique — 1ère circonscription	42.2%	32.3%	21.1%	2.0%
Provincial averageLoire-Atlantique	37.4% +4.8	23.3% +9.0	27.5% −6.4	2.4% −0.4
National averageFrance	29.5% +12.7	20.6% +11.7	36.0% −14.9	3.9% −1.9

Provincial averages computed across the 577 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · FR LEG_2024

Won by

Left (NFP)

Margin

0.0 pts

Margin shift vs current projection

+10.0 pts

Detailed result · FR LEG_2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate	Party	Votes	%	Occupation
Karim BENBRAHIM Elected	Left (NFP)	23,671	43.2	—
Mounir BELHAMITI	Centre (Ensemble)	20,488	37.4	—
Bryan PECQUEUR	RN and allies	9,937	18.1	—
Hélène DEFRANCE	Far left	521	0.9	—
Betty COLLOBER	Far left	181	0.3	—

Around the region

Nearby ridings

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Last model run: July 11, 2026
Cycle: fr_leg_next