Riding profile

Loire-Atlantique — 3ème circonscription

Circonscription française — Loire-Atlantique

The question

Loire-Atlantique — 3ème circonscription: a safe seat for the united left?

Editorial read

Loire-Atlantique — 3ème circonscription, a mixed riding in Loire-Atlantique, elected a member with the united left in the previous cycle, with a 0-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the united left ahead at 44% vote share, against 23% for the RN and its allies, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Ségolène AMIOT

Sits with Left (NFP)

Current forecast

Left (NFP)

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
20.2
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Left (NFP) 43.6%
  • RN and allies 23.3%
  • Centre (Ensemble) 19.5%
  • LR and allies 7.5%
  • Others 4.9%
  • Far left 1.2%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Left (NFP) RN and allies Centre (Ensemble) LR and allies
HereLoire-Atlantique — 3ème circonscription 43.6%23.3%19.5%7.5%
Provincial averageLoire-Atlantique 37.4% +6.2 27.5% −4.1 23.3% −3.8 11.9% −4.4
National averageFrance 29.5% +14.1 36.0% −12.6 20.6% −1.1 12.2% −4.7

Provincial averages computed across the 577 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · FR LEG_2024

Won by
Left (NFP)
Margin
0.0 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+20.2 pts

Detailed result · FR LEG_2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Ségolène AMIOT Elected Left (NFP) 29,285 44.6 —
Matthieu ANNEREAU Centre (Ensemble) 16,135 24.6 —
Laurie ARC RN and allies 13,425 20.4 —
Sophie VAN GOETHEM LR and allies 4,143 6.3 —
Gildas PERROT Others 1,896 2.9 —
Hélène DOLIDON Far left 832 1.3 —

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
fr_leg_next