Riding profile

Loire-Atlantique — 4ème circonscription

Circonscription française — Loire-Atlantique

The question

Loire-Atlantique — 4ème circonscription: a safe seat for the united left?

Editorial read

Loire-Atlantique — 4ème circonscription, a mixed riding in Loire-Atlantique, elected a member with the united left in the previous cycle, with a 0-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the united left ahead at 46% vote share, against 23% for the RN and its allies, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Julie LAERNOES

Sits with Left (NFP)

Current forecast

Left (NFP)

Safe

Probability: 100%
Mean margin (pts): 23.0
P(close race): 0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

Left (NFP) 46.1%
RN and allies 23.1%
Centre (Ensemble) 17.7%
LR and allies 9.6%
Others 2.0%
Far left 1.1%

In context

How this riding stacks up

	Left (NFP)	RN and allies	Centre (Ensemble)	LR and allies
HereLoire-Atlantique — 4ème circonscription	46.1%	23.1%	17.7%	9.6%
Provincial averageLoire-Atlantique	37.4% +8.7	27.5% −4.3	23.3% −5.6	11.9% −2.4
National averageFrance	29.5% +16.6	36.0% −12.9	20.6% −2.9	12.2% −2.6

Provincial averages computed across the 577 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · FR LEG_2024

Won by

Left (NFP)

Margin

0.0 pts

Margin shift vs current projection

+23.0 pts

Detailed result · FR LEG_2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate	Party	Votes	%	Occupation
Julie LAERNOES Elected	Left (NFP)	30,619	46.8	—
Aude AMADOU	Centre (Ensemble)	14,815	22.7	—
Gaëlle PINEAU	RN and allies	13,116	20.1	—
Astrid LUSSON	LR and allies	5,450	8.3	—
Stéphane PELLEGRINI	Far left	788	1.2	—
François OLLÉON	Greens	593	0.9	—
Mattis GAUVIN	Far left	0	0.0	—

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run: July 11, 2026
Cycle: fr_leg_next