Riding profile

Vendée — 3ème circonscription

Circonscription française — Vendée

The question

Vendée — 3ème circonscription: who wins this toss-up?

Editorial read

Vendée — 3ème circonscription, a mixed riding in Vendée, elected a member with the centrist bloc in the previous cycle, with a 0-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the RN and its allies ahead at 40% vote share, against 30% for the centrist bloc, and the race could swing.

Sitting member

Stéphane BUCHOU

Sits with Centre (Ensemble)

Current forecast

RN and allies

Toss-up

Probability
81%
Mean margin (pts)
10.6
P(close race)
38%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • RN and allies 40.4%
  • Centre (Ensemble) 29.8%
  • Left (NFP) 15.6%
  • LR and allies 9.9%
  • Others 2.0%
  • Sovereignists 1.6%
  • Far left 0.8%

In context

How this riding stacks up

RN and allies Centre (Ensemble) Left (NFP) LR and allies
HereVendée — 3ème circonscription 40.4%29.8%15.6%9.9%
Provincial averageVendée 36.2% +4.2 28.6% +1.2 19.5% −3.9 11.7% −1.8
National averageFrance 36.0% +4.4 20.6% +9.2 29.5% −13.9 12.2% −2.3

Provincial averages computed across the 577 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · FR LEG_2024

Won by
Centre (Ensemble)
Margin
0.0 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+10.6 pts

Detailed result · FR LEG_2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Pascal DUBIN RN and allies 33,545 35.6 —
Stéphane BUCHOU Elected Centre (Ensemble) 32,889 34.9 —
Pascale MARCHAND Left (NFP) 15,466 16.4 —
Noël FAUCHER LR and allies 8,221 8.7 —
Eric MAUVOISIN-DELAVAUD RN and allies 1,895 2.0 —
Armelle Marie Geneviève GUÉNOLÉ Sovereignists 1,428 1.5 —
Philippe FESTIEN Far left 817 0.9 —

Around the region

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Last model run
Cycle
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