Riding profile

Vendée — 1ère circonscription

Circonscription française — Vendée

The question

Vendée — 1ère circonscription: a safe seat for the centrist bloc?

Editorial read

Vendée — 1ère circonscription, a mixed riding in Vendée, elected a member with the centrist bloc in the previous cycle, with a 0-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the centrist bloc ahead at 36% vote share, against 35% for the RN and its allies, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Philippe LATOMBE

Sits with Centre (Ensemble)

Current forecast

Centre (Ensemble)

Safe

Probability
97%
Mean margin (pts)
1.4
P(close race)
6%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Centre (Ensemble) 36.4%
  • RN and allies 35.0%
  • Left (NFP) 22.5%
  • Others 2.0%
  • Sovereignists 1.8%
  • LR and allies 1.2%
  • Far left 1.1%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Centre (Ensemble) RN and allies Left (NFP) Others
HereVendée — 1ère circonscription 36.4%35.0%22.5%2.0%
Provincial averageVendée 28.6% +7.8 36.2% −1.2 19.5% +3.0 2.0%
National averageFrance 20.6% +15.8 36.0% −1.0 29.5% −7.0 3.9% −1.9

Provincial averages computed across the 577 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · FR LEG_2024

Won by
Centre (Ensemble)
Margin
0.0 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+1.4 pts

Detailed result · FR LEG_2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Simon-Pierre PAULIN RN and allies 26,105 32.2 —
Philippe LATOMBE Elected Centre (Ensemble) 23,136 28.5 —
Lucie ETONNO Left (NFP) 18,929 23.3 —
Laurent CAILLAUD Centre (Ensemble) 10,607 13.1 —
Jean-Marc BARIAL Sovereignists 1,436 1.8 —
Gilles ROBIN Far left 942 1.2 —

Around the region

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Last model run
Cycle
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