Riding profile
Vendée — 2ème circonscription
The question
Vendée — 2ème circonscription: who wins this toss-up?
Editorial read
Vendée — 2ème circonscription, a mixed riding in Vendée, elected a member with the centrist bloc in the previous cycle, with a 0-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the centrist bloc ahead at 39% vote share, against 34% for the centrist bloc, and the race could swing.
Sitting member
Béatrice BELLAMY
Sits with Centre (Ensemble)
Current forecast
Centre (Ensemble)
Toss-up
- Probability
- 82%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 5.8
- P(close race)
- 37%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| RN and allies | Centre (Ensemble) | Left (NFP) | Others | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereVendée — 2ème circonscription | 39.4% | 33.6% | 22.5% | 2.0% |
| Provincial averageVendée | 36.2% +3.1 | 28.6% +5.0 | 19.5% +3.0 | 2.0% |
| National averageFrance | 36.0% +3.4 | 20.6% +13.0 | 29.5% −7.0 | 3.9% −1.9 |
Provincial averages computed across the 577 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Previous election · FR LEG_2024
Detailed result · FR LEG_2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Béatrice BELLAMY Elected | Centre (Ensemble) | 30,262 | 38.7 | — |
| Marie-Christine EBRAN | RN and allies | 28,538 | 36.5 | — |
| Nicolas HELARY | Left (NFP) | 18,234 | 23.3 | — |
| Sophie BARILLOT | Far left | 1,081 | 1.4 | — |
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Vendée — 1ère circonscriptionCentre (Ensemble) Safe seatOpen →
- Charente-Maritime — 1ère circonscriptionLeft (NFP) Safe seatOpen →
- Vendée — 4ème circonscriptionLR and allies Safe seatOpen →
- Vendée — 5ème circonscriptionRN and allies Toss-upOpen →
- Loire-Atlantique — 10ème circonscriptionLeft (NFP) Toss-upOpen →
- Vendée — 3ème circonscriptionRN and allies CompetitiveOpen →
- Last model run
- Cycle
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