Riding profile

Vendée — 5ème circonscription

Circonscription française — Vendée

The question

Vendée — 5ème circonscription: who wins this toss-up?

Editorial read

Vendée — 5ème circonscription, a mixed riding in Vendée, elected a member with the centrist bloc in the previous cycle, with a 0-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the RN and its allies ahead at 41% vote share, against 30% for the centrist bloc, and the race could swing.

Sitting member

Pierre HENRIET

Sits with Centre (Ensemble)

Current forecast

RN and allies

Toss-up

Probability
74%
Mean margin (pts)
11.0
P(close race)
52%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • RN and allies 40.7%
  • Centre (Ensemble) 29.7%
  • Left (NFP) 19.3%
  • LR and allies 5.9%
  • Others 2.0%
  • Sovereignists 1.4%
  • Far left 1.1%

In context

How this riding stacks up

RN and allies Centre (Ensemble) Left (NFP) LR and allies
HereVendée — 5ème circonscription 40.7%29.7%19.3%5.9%
Provincial averageVendée 36.2% +4.4 28.6% +1.1 19.5% −0.2 11.7% −5.8
National averageFrance 36.0% +4.7 20.6% +9.1 29.5% −10.2 12.2% −6.3

Provincial averages computed across the 577 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · FR LEG_2024

Won by
Centre (Ensemble)
Margin
0.0 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+11.0 pts

Detailed result · FR LEG_2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Stéphane BUFFETAUT RN and allies 21,309 37.9
Pierre HENRIET Elected Centre (Ensemble) 19,606 34.8
Pierre-Hugues FOURAGE Left (NFP) 11,321 20.1
Marius GALAND LR and allies 2,633 4.7
Sonia LE THEIX Sovereignists 742 1.3
Béatrice RUAULT Far left 659 1.2
Last model run
Cycle
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