Riding profile
Deux-Sèvres — 1ère circonscription
The question
Deux-Sèvres — 1ère circonscription: who wins this toss-up?
Editorial read
Deux-Sèvres — 1ère circonscription, a mixed riding in Deux-Sèvres, elected a member with the centrist bloc in the previous cycle, with a 0-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the centrist bloc ahead at 35% vote share, against 32% for the united left, and the race could swing.
Sitting member
Bastien MARCHIVE
Sits with Centre (Ensemble)
Current forecast
Centre (Ensemble)
Toss-up
- Probability
- 77%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 3.2
- P(close race)
- 45%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Centre (Ensemble) | Left (NFP) | RN and allies | Others | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereDeux-Sèvres — 1ère circonscription | 35.1% | 31.9% | 28.7% | 2.0% |
| Provincial averageDeux-Sèvres | 24.0% +11.1 | 25.0% +6.9 | 34.9% −6.2 | 2.0% |
| National averageFrance | 20.6% +14.5 | 29.5% +2.4 | 36.0% −7.2 | 3.9% −1.9 |
Provincial averages computed across the 577 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Previous election · FR LEG_2024
Detailed result · FR LEG_2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bastien MARCHIVE Elected | Centre (Ensemble) | 25,247 | 40.2 | — |
| Nathalie LANZI | Left (NFP) | 20,571 | 32.8 | — |
| Dorothée CHAMPEAU | RN and allies | 15,447 | 24.6 | — |
| Virginie JULIARD | RN and allies | 773 | 1.2 | — |
| Danielle VAUZELLE | Far left | 698 | 1.1 | — |
| Marc René GAILLARD | Left (NFP) | 0 | 0.0 | — |
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Deux-Sèvres — 2ème circonscriptionGreens Safe seatOpen →
- Deux-Sèvres — 3ème circonscriptionRN and allies Toss-upOpen →
- Vendée — 5ème circonscriptionRN and allies Toss-upOpen →
- Charente-Maritime — 3ème circonscriptionRN and allies Safe seatOpen →
- Charente-Maritime — 2ème circonscriptionRN and allies Safe seatOpen →
- Vienne — 2ème circonscriptionLeft (NFP) Safe seatOpen →
- Last model run
- Cycle
fr_leg_next