Riding profile

Deux-Sèvres — 2ème circonscription

Circonscription française — Deux-Sèvres

The question

Deux-Sèvres — 2ème circonscription: a safe seat for the Greens?

Editorial read

Deux-Sèvres — 2ème circonscription, a mixed riding in Deux-Sèvres, elected a member with the Greens in the previous cycle, with a 0-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Greens ahead at 38% vote share, against 38% for the Greens, and the riding remains competitive.

Sitting member

Delphine BATHO

Sits with Greens

Current forecast

Greens

Competitive

Probability
91%
Mean margin (pts)
0.3
P(close race)
18%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • RN and allies 38.0%
  • Greens 37.7%
  • Centre (Ensemble) 10.9%
  • LR and allies 10.4%
  • Others 2.0%
  • Far left 0.8%

In context

How this riding stacks up

RN and allies Greens Centre (Ensemble) LR and allies
HereDeux-Sèvres — 2ème circonscription 38.0%37.7%10.9%10.4%
Provincial averageDeux-Sèvres 34.9% +3.1 37.7% 24.0% −13.1 8.8% +1.7
National averageFrance 36.0% +2.1 2.1% +35.6 20.6% −9.6 12.2% −1.8

Provincial averages computed across the 577 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · FR LEG_2024

Won by
Greens
Margin
0.0 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+0.3 pts

Detailed result · FR LEG_2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Delphine BATHO Elected Greens 25,435 38.6
Mélody GARAULT RN and allies 22,500 34.1
Frédéric BIZARD Centre (Ensemble) 10,536 16.0
Emilie BAUDREZ LR and allies 6,107 9.3
Guy BOURDON RN and allies 760 1.1
Roger GORIZZUTTI Far left 607 0.9
Last model run
Cycle
fr_leg_next