Riding profile

Deux-Sèvres — 3ème circonscription

Circonscription française — Deux-Sèvres

The question

Deux-Sèvres — 3ème circonscription: who wins this toss-up?

Editorial read

Deux-Sèvres — 3ème circonscription, a mixed riding in Deux-Sèvres, elected a member with the centrist bloc in the previous cycle, with a 0-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the RN and its allies ahead at 38% vote share, against 26% for the centrist bloc, and the race could swing.

Sitting member

Jean-Marie FIÉVET

Sits with Centre (Ensemble)

Current forecast

RN and allies

Toss-up

Probability
72%
Mean margin (pts)
12.0
P(close race)
55%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • RN and allies 38.1%
  • Centre (Ensemble) 26.0%
  • Left (NFP) 18.1%
  • LR and allies 14.6%
  • Others 2.0%
  • Far left 1.1%

In context

How this riding stacks up

RN and allies Centre (Ensemble) Left (NFP) LR and allies
HereDeux-Sèvres — 3ème circonscription 38.1%26.0%18.1%14.6%
Provincial averageDeux-Sèvres 34.9% +3.1 24.0% +2.0 25.0% −6.9 8.8% +5.9
National averageFrance 36.0% +2.1 20.6% +5.5 29.5% −11.4 12.2% +2.4

Provincial averages computed across the 577 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · FR LEG_2024

Won by
Centre (Ensemble)
Margin
0.0 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+12.0 pts

Detailed result · FR LEG_2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Philippe ROBIN RN and allies 19,585 35.2 —
Jean-Marie FIÉVET Elected Centre (Ensemble) 17,310 31.1 —
Juliette WOILLEZ Left (NFP) 10,533 18.9 —
Mattieu MANCEAU LR and allies 7,491 13.5 —
Maryse VALLÉE Far left 665 1.2 —
Jacky DURAND Left (NFP) 0 0.0 —

Around the region

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Last model run
Cycle
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