Riding profile

Maine-et-Loire — 4ème circonscription

Circonscription française — Maine-et-Loire

The question

Maine-et-Loire — 4ème circonscription: who wins this toss-up?

Editorial read

Maine-et-Loire — 4ème circonscription, a mixed riding in Maine-et-Loire, elected a member with the centrist bloc in the previous cycle, with a 0-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the centrist bloc ahead at 38% vote share, against 30% for the centrist bloc, and the race could swing.

Sitting member

Laëtitia SAINT-PAUL

Sits with Centre (Ensemble)

Current forecast

Centre (Ensemble)

Toss-up

Probability: 50%
Mean margin (pts): 8.0
P(close race): 100%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

RN and allies 37.7%
Centre (Ensemble) 29.8%
Left (NFP) 19.7%
LR and allies 7.9%
Others 2.0%
Sovereignists 1.5%
Far left 1.4%

In context

How this riding stacks up

	RN and allies	Centre (Ensemble)	Left (NFP)	LR and allies
HereMaine-et-Loire — 4ème circonscription	37.7%	29.8%	19.7%	7.9%
Provincial averageMaine-et-Loire	32.8% +4.9	27.3% +2.5	24.5% −4.8	11.1% −3.2
National averageFrance	36.0% +1.8	20.6% +9.2	29.5% −9.7	12.2% −4.3

Provincial averages computed across the 577 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · FR LEG_2024

Won by

Centre (Ensemble)

Margin

0.0 pts

Margin shift vs current projection

+8.0 pts

Detailed result · FR LEG_2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate	Party	Votes	%	Occupation
Aurore LAHONDÈS	RN and allies	18,014	34.9	—
Laëtitia SAINT-PAUL Elected	Centre (Ensemble)	18,001	34.9	—
Charlyne BOUVET	Left (NFP)	10,629	20.6	—
Frédéric MORTIER	LR and allies	3,455	6.7	—
Delphine HAMON	Sovereignists	769	1.5	—
Sylvie GERET	Far left	750	1.4	—
Nicolas VITASSE	Far left	3	0.0	—

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run: July 11, 2026
Cycle: fr_leg_next