Riding profile

Maine-et-Loire — 1ère circonscription

Circonscription française — Maine-et-Loire

The question

Maine-et-Loire — 1ère circonscription: who wins this toss-up?

Editorial read

Maine-et-Loire — 1ère circonscription, a mixed riding in Maine-et-Loire, elected a member with the centrist bloc in the previous cycle, with a 0-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the united left ahead at 33% vote share, against 30% for the centrist bloc, and the race could swing.

Sitting member

François GERNIGON

Sits with Centre (Ensemble)

Current forecast

Left (NFP)

Toss-up

Probability
73%
Mean margin (pts)
3.2
P(close race)
53%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Left (NFP) 32.9%
  • Centre (Ensemble) 29.7%
  • RN and allies 26.7%
  • LR and allies 7.4%
  • Others 2.0%
  • Far left 1.3%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Left (NFP) Centre (Ensemble) RN and allies LR and allies
HereMaine-et-Loire — 1ère circonscription 32.9%29.7%26.7%7.4%
Provincial averageMaine-et-Loire 24.5% +8.4 27.3% +2.4 32.8% −6.1 11.1% −3.7
National averageFrance 29.5% +3.4 20.6% +9.1 36.0% −9.2 12.2% −4.8

Provincial averages computed across the 577 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · FR LEG_2024

Won by
Centre (Ensemble)
Margin
0.0 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+3.2 pts

Detailed result · FR LEG_2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
François GERNIGON Elected Centre (Ensemble) 21,087 34.8 —
Elsa RICHARD Left (NFP) 20,475 33.8 —
Hugo LOUVIGNE RN and allies 13,995 23.1 —
Séverine LÉCUYER LR and allies 3,736 6.2 —
Marie Louise DUPAS Far left 642 1.1 —
Roselyne PRUNIERE RN and allies 432 0.7 —
Anthony GOUAS Far left 173 0.3 —

Around the region

Nearby ridings

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Last model run
Cycle
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