Riding profile

Maine-et-Loire — 3ème circonscription

Circonscription française — Maine-et-Loire

The question

Maine-et-Loire — 3ème circonscription: who wins this toss-up?

Editorial read

Maine-et-Loire — 3ème circonscription, a mixed riding in Maine-et-Loire, elected a member with the LR right in the previous cycle, with a 0-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the RN and its allies ahead at 41% vote share, against 25% for the LR right, and the race could swing.

Sitting member

Anne-Laure BLIN

Sits with LR and allies

Current forecast

RN and allies

Toss-up

Probability
77%
Mean margin (pts)
15.7
P(close race)
46%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • RN and allies 40.6%
  • LR and allies 25.0%
  • Left (NFP) 19.1%
  • Centre (Ensemble) 11.8%
  • Others 2.0%
  • Far left 1.4%

In context

How this riding stacks up

RN and allies LR and allies Left (NFP) Centre (Ensemble)
HereMaine-et-Loire — 3ème circonscription 40.6%25.0%19.1%11.8%
Provincial averageMaine-et-Loire 32.8% +7.8 11.1% +13.9 24.5% −5.5 27.3% −15.4
National averageFrance 36.0% +4.7 12.2% +12.8 29.5% −10.4 20.6% −8.7

Provincial averages computed across the 577 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · FR LEG_2024

Won by
LR and allies
Margin
0.0 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+15.7 pts

Detailed result · FR LEG_2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Edouard BOURGEAULT RN and allies 18,344 37.8
Anne-Laure BLIN Elected LR and allies 11,572 23.9
Patrick ALEXANDRE Left (NFP) 9,656 19.9
Simon HOLLEY Centre (Ensemble) 8,168 16.9
Patricia PEILLON Far left 741 1.5
Last model run
Cycle
fr_leg_next