Riding profile
Vienne — 2ème circonscription
The question
Vienne — 2ème circonscription: will Centre (Ensemble) lose this seat to Left (NFP)?
Editorial read
Vienne — 2ème circonscription, a mixed riding in Vienne, elected a member with the centrist bloc in the previous cycle, with a 0-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the united left ahead at 38% vote share, against 28% for the centrist bloc, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
Sacha HOULIÉ
Sits with Centre (Ensemble)
Current forecast
Left (NFP)
Safe
- Probability
- 99%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 9.7
- P(close race)
- 2%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Left (NFP) | Centre (Ensemble) | RN and allies | LR and allies | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereVienne — 2ème circonscription | 37.8% | 28.1% | 27.3% | 4.1% |
| Provincial averageVienne | 31.0% +6.7 | 26.7% +1.4 | 36.7% −9.4 | 2.0% +2.2 |
| National averageFrance | 29.5% +8.3 | 20.6% +7.5 | 36.0% −8.7 | 12.2% −8.1 |
Provincial averages computed across the 577 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Previous election · FR LEG_2024
Detailed result · FR LEG_2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sacha HOULIÉ Elected | Centre (Ensemble) | 18,855 | 33.2 | — |
| Valérie SOUMAILLE | Left (NFP) | 16,254 | 28.6 | — |
| Estelle CHEVALLIER | RN and allies | 13,864 | 24.4 | — |
| Aurélien BOURDIER | Left (NFP) | 5,723 | 10.1 | — |
| Xavier AUGAY | LR and allies | 1,658 | 2.9 | — |
| Agnès CHAUVIN | Far left | 413 | 0.7 | — |
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Vienne — 1ère circonscriptionLeft (NFP) Safe seatOpen →
- Vienne — 3ème circonscriptionRN and allies Safe seatOpen →
- Vienne — 4ème circonscriptionRN and allies Safe seatOpen →
- Deux-Sèvres — 2ème circonscriptionGreens Safe seatOpen →
- Deux-Sèvres — 1ère circonscriptionCentre (Ensemble) CompetitiveOpen →
- Indre-et-Loire — 4ème circonscriptionRN and allies CompetitiveOpen →
- Last model run
- Cycle
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