Riding profile

Vienne — 4ème circonscription

Circonscription française — Vienne

The question

Vienne — 4ème circonscription: will Centre (Ensemble) lose this seat to RN and allies?

Editorial read

Vienne — 4ème circonscription, a mixed riding in Vienne, elected a member with the centrist bloc in the previous cycle, with a 0-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the RN and its allies ahead at 44% vote share, against 30% for the centrist bloc, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Nicolas TURQUOIS

Sits with Centre (Ensemble)

Current forecast

RN and allies

Safe

Probability
93%
Mean margin (pts)
14.2
P(close race)
14%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • RN and allies 43.8%
  • Centre (Ensemble) 29.7%
  • Left (NFP) 20.2%
  • Others 2.0%
  • Sovereignists 1.6%
  • Far left 1.4%
  • LR and allies 1.2%

In context

How this riding stacks up

RN and allies Centre (Ensemble) Left (NFP) Others
HereVienne — 4ème circonscription 43.8%29.7%20.2%2.0%
Provincial averageVienne 36.7% +7.1 26.7% +3.0 31.0% −10.8 2.0%
National averageFrance 36.0% +7.9 20.6% +9.1 29.5% −9.2 3.9% −1.9

Provincial averages computed across the 577 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · FR LEG_2024

Won by
Centre (Ensemble)
Margin
0.0 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+14.2 pts

Detailed result · FR LEG_2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Hager JACQUEMIN RN and allies 19,268 41.0 —
Nicolas TURQUOIS Elected Centre (Ensemble) 15,076 32.1 —
Yves TROUSSELLE Left (NFP) 9,901 21.1 —
Patrick MINOT Centre (Ensemble) 1,263 2.7 —
Sabine BORTOLOTTI Sovereignists 752 1.6 —
Patrice VILLERET Far left 691 1.5 —

Around the region

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Last model run
Cycle
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