Riding profile
Indre-et-Loire — 4ème circonscription
The question
Indre-et-Loire — 4ème circonscription: will Left (NFP) lose this seat to RN and allies?
Editorial read
Indre-et-Loire — 4ème circonscription, a mixed riding in Indre-et-Loire, elected a member with the united left in the previous cycle, with a 0-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the RN and its allies ahead at 36% vote share, against 29% for the united left, and the riding remains competitive.
Sitting member
Laurent BAUMEL
Sits with Left (NFP)
Current forecast
RN and allies
Competitive
- Probability
- 82%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 6.9
- P(close race)
- 33%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| RN and allies | Left (NFP) | Centre (Ensemble) | LR and allies | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereIndre-et-Loire — 4ème circonscription | 35.7% | 28.8% | 22.6% | 9.7% |
| Provincial averageIndre-et-Loire | 34.7% +1.0 | 29.4% −0.6 | 23.7% −1.2 | 7.7% +2.1 |
| National averageFrance | 36.0% −0.2 | 29.5% −0.7 | 20.6% +2.0 | 12.2% −2.5 |
Provincial averages computed across the 577 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Previous election · FR LEG_2024
Detailed result · FR LEG_2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jean-François BELLANGER | RN and allies | 20,328 | 32.9 | — |
| Laurent BAUMEL Elected | Left (NFP) | 18,374 | 29.7 | — |
| Fabienne COLBOC | Centre (Ensemble) | 17,092 | 27.6 | — |
| Sophie LAGRÉE | LR and allies | 5,287 | 8.6 | — |
| Kévin GARDEAU | Far left | 731 | 1.2 | — |
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Vienne — 4ème circonscriptionRN and allies Safe seatOpen →
- Indre-et-Loire — 5ème circonscriptionRN and allies Safe seatOpen →
- Indre-et-Loire — 1ère circonscriptionLeft (NFP) Safe seatOpen →
- Indre-et-Loire — 3ème circonscriptionCentre (Ensemble) Toss-upOpen →
- Vienne — 1ère circonscriptionLeft (NFP) Safe seatOpen →
- Indre-et-Loire — 2ème circonscriptionRN and allies Toss-upOpen →
- Last model run
- Cycle
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