Riding profile
Vienne — 1ère circonscription
The question
Vienne — 1ère circonscription: a safe seat for the united left?
Editorial read
Vienne — 1ère circonscription, a mixed riding in Vienne, elected a member with the united left in the previous cycle, with a 0-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the united left ahead at 40% vote share, against 32% for the RN and its allies, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
Lisa BELLUCO
Sits with Left (NFP)
Current forecast
Left (NFP)
Safe
- Probability
- 99%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 8.4
- P(close race)
- 2%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Left (NFP) | RN and allies | Centre (Ensemble) | Others | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereVienne — 1ère circonscription | 40.2% | 31.8% | 23.8% | 2.0% |
| Provincial averageVienne | 31.0% +9.1 | 36.7% −4.9 | 26.7% −2.9 | 2.0% |
| National averageFrance | 29.5% +10.7 | 36.0% −4.2 | 20.6% +3.2 | 3.9% −1.9 |
Provincial averages computed across the 577 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Previous election · FR LEG_2024
Detailed result · FR LEG_2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lisa BELLUCO Elected | Left (NFP) | 18,232 | 33.1 | — |
| Emmanuelle DARLES | RN and allies | 15,918 | 28.9 | — |
| Séverine SAINT-PÉ | Centre (Ensemble) | 15,875 | 28.9 | — |
| Aurélien TRICOT | Left (NFP) | 4,399 | 8.0 | — |
| Ludovic GAILLARD | Far left | 599 | 1.1 | — |
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Vienne — 2ème circonscriptionLeft (NFP) Safe seatOpen →
- Vienne — 4ème circonscriptionRN and allies Safe seatOpen →
- Vienne — 3ème circonscriptionRN and allies Safe seatOpen →
- Indre-et-Loire — 4ème circonscriptionRN and allies CompetitiveOpen →
- Deux-Sèvres — 2ème circonscriptionGreens Safe seatOpen →
- Indre-et-Loire — 3ème circonscriptionCentre (Ensemble) Toss-upOpen →
- Last model run
- Cycle
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