Riding profile
Vendée — 4ème circonscription
The question
Vendée — 4ème circonscription: a safe seat for the LR right?
Editorial read
Vendée — 4ème circonscription, a mixed riding in Vendée, elected a member with the LR right in the previous cycle, with a 0-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the LR right ahead at 40% vote share, against 26% for the RN and its allies, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
Véronique BESSE
Sits with LR and allies
Current forecast
LR and allies
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 14.5
- P(close race)
- 0%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| LR and allies | RN and allies | Left (NFP) | Centre (Ensemble) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereVendée — 4ème circonscription | 40.3% | 25.8% | 17.6% | 13.4% |
| Provincial averageVendée | 11.7% +28.6 | 36.2% −10.5 | 19.5% −1.9 | 28.6% −15.1 |
| National averageFrance | 12.2% +28.1 | 36.0% −10.2 | 29.5% −11.9 | 20.6% −7.1 |
Provincial averages computed across the 577 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Previous election · FR LEG_2024
Detailed result · FR LEG_2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Véronique BESSE Elected | LR and allies | 28,086 | 39.3 | — |
| Jacques PROUX | RN and allies | 16,345 | 22.9 | — |
| Ilias NAGNONHOU | Centre (Ensemble) | 13,192 | 18.5 | — |
| Julie MARIEL-GODARD | Left (NFP) | 13,164 | 18.4 | — |
| Claude BOUR | Far left | 666 | 0.9 | — |
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Maine-et-Loire — 5ème circonscriptionCentre (Ensemble) Toss-upOpen →
- Loire-Atlantique — 10ème circonscriptionLeft (NFP) Toss-upOpen →
- Vendée — 2ème circonscriptionCentre (Ensemble) CompetitiveOpen →
- Vendée — 5ème circonscriptionRN and allies Toss-upOpen →
- Vendée — 1ère circonscriptionCentre (Ensemble) Safe seatOpen →
- Maine-et-Loire — 6ème circonscriptionCentre (Ensemble) Safe seatOpen →
- Last model run
- Cycle
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