Riding profile
Mayenne — 3ème circonscription
The question
Mayenne — 3ème circonscription: a safe seat for the centrist bloc?
Editorial read
Mayenne — 3ème circonscription, a mixed riding in Mayenne, elected a member with the centrist bloc in the previous cycle, with a 0-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the centrist bloc ahead at 43% vote share, against 34% for the RN and its allies, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
Yannick FAVENNEC
Sits with Centre (Ensemble)
Current forecast
Centre (Ensemble)
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 9.5
- P(close race)
- 0%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Centre (Ensemble) | RN and allies | Left (NFP) | Others | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereMayenne — 3ème circonscription | 43.5% | 34.0% | 18.3% | 2.0% |
| Provincial averageMayenne | 36.8% +6.7 | 32.9% +1.1 | 27.5% −9.2 | 2.1% −0.1 |
| National averageFrance | 20.6% +22.9 | 36.0% −2.0 | 29.5% −11.1 | 3.9% −1.9 |
Provincial averages computed across the 577 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Previous election · FR LEG_2024
Detailed result · FR LEG_2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yannick FAVENNEC Elected | Centre (Ensemble) | 23,294 | 48.7 | — |
| Annie BELL | RN and allies | 14,884 | 31.1 | — |
| Stéphanie LEFOULON | Left (NFP) | 9,176 | 19.2 | — |
| Martine AMELIN | Far left | 494 | 1.0 | — |
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Mayenne — 1ère circonscriptionLeft (NFP) Safe seatOpen →
- Mayenne — 2ème circonscriptionCentre (Ensemble) Safe seatOpen →
- Orne — 1ère circonscriptionRN and allies Toss-upOpen →
- Orne — 3ème circonscriptionLR and allies Safe seatOpen →
- Calvados — 6ème circonscriptionCentre (Ensemble) Toss-upOpen →
- Manche — 2ème circonscriptionCentre (Ensemble) Safe seatOpen →
- Last model run
- Cycle
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