Riding profile
Orne — 3ème circonscription
The question
Orne — 3ème circonscription: a safe seat for the LR right?
Editorial read
Orne — 3ème circonscription, a mixed riding in Orne, elected a member with the LR right in the previous cycle, with a 0-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the LR right ahead at 43% vote share, against 35% for the RN and its allies, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
Jérôme NURY
Sits with LR and allies
Current forecast
LR and allies
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 8.0
- P(close race)
- 0%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| LR and allies | RN and allies | Left (NFP) | Others | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereOrne — 3ème circonscription | 42.6% | 34.6% | 19.3% | 1.9% |
| Provincial averageOrne | 26.1% +16.4 | 39.1% −4.6 | 20.6% −1.3 | 2.0% −0.1 |
| National averageFrance | 12.2% +30.4 | 36.0% −1.4 | 29.5% −10.2 | 3.9% −2.0 |
Provincial averages computed across the 577 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Previous election · FR LEG_2024
Detailed result · FR LEG_2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jérôme NURY Elected | LR and allies | 20,701 | 43.7 | — |
| Ludmila PETCHENINA | RN and allies | 15,364 | 32.4 | — |
| Lori HELLOCO | Left (NFP) | 9,988 | 21.1 | — |
| Arnaud GAUTIER | Far left | 857 | 1.8 | — |
| Sylvia HENOT | RN and allies | 488 | 1.0 | — |
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Orne — 1ère circonscriptionRN and allies Toss-upOpen →
- Calvados — 3ème circonscriptionRN and allies Safe seatOpen →
- Calvados — 6ème circonscriptionCentre (Ensemble) Toss-upOpen →
- Calvados — 2ème circonscriptionLeft (NFP) Safe seatOpen →
- Calvados — 1ère circonscriptionLR and allies Safe seatOpen →
- Mayenne — 1ère circonscriptionLeft (NFP) Safe seatOpen →
- Last model run
- Cycle
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