Riding profile

Calvados — 6ème circonscription

Circonscription française — Calvados

The question

Calvados — 6ème circonscription: who wins this toss-up?

Editorial read

Calvados — 6ème circonscription, a mixed riding in Calvados, elected a member with the centrist bloc in the previous cycle, with a 0-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the centrist bloc ahead at 40% vote share, against 31% for the centrist bloc, and the race could swing.

Sitting member

Elisabeth BORNE

Sits with Centre (Ensemble)

Current forecast

Centre (Ensemble)

Toss-up

Probability
50%
Mean margin (pts)
8.6
P(close race)
99%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • RN and allies 40.1%
  • Centre (Ensemble) 31.5%
  • Left (NFP) 22.3%
  • Others 2.0%
  • Sovereignists 1.8%
  • LR and allies 1.2%
  • Far left 1.2%

In context

How this riding stacks up

RN and allies Centre (Ensemble) Left (NFP) Others
HereCalvados — 6ème circonscription 40.1%31.5%22.3%2.0%
Provincial averageCalvados 34.8% +5.2 23.8% +7.7 26.1% −3.8 2.0%
National averageFrance 36.0% +4.1 20.6% +10.9 29.5% −7.2 3.9% −1.9

Provincial averages computed across the 577 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · FR LEG_2024

Won by
Centre (Ensemble)
Margin
0.0 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+8.6 pts

Detailed result · FR LEG_2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Nicolas CALBRIX RN and allies 24,077 36.3 —
Elisabeth BORNE Elected Centre (Ensemble) 19,213 28.9 —
Noé GAUCHARD Left (NFP) 15,376 23.2 —
Lynda LAHALLE Centre (Ensemble) 5,080 7.7 —
Philippe AMBOURG Sovereignists 1,128 1.7 —
Esteline CAILLEMER RN and allies 650 1.0 —
Pascale GEORGET Far left 616 0.9 —
Bérengère LAREYNIE Far left 262 0.4 —

Around the region

Nearby ridings

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Last model run
Cycle
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