Riding profile
Calvados — 2ème circonscription
The question
Calvados — 2ème circonscription: a safe seat for the united left?
Editorial read
Calvados — 2ème circonscription, a mixed riding in Calvados, elected a member with the united left in the previous cycle, with a 0-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the united left ahead at 41% vote share, against 29% for the RN and its allies, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
Arthur DELAPORTE
Sits with Left (NFP)
Current forecast
Left (NFP)
Safe
- Probability
- 99%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 12.7
- P(close race)
- 2%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Left (NFP) | RN and allies | LR and allies | Centre (Ensemble) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereCalvados — 2ème circonscription | 41.4% | 28.7% | 16.6% | 9.0% |
| Provincial averageCalvados | 26.1% +15.3 | 34.8% −6.1 | 15.1% +1.5 | 23.8% −14.8 |
| National averageFrance | 29.5% +11.9 | 36.0% −7.3 | 12.2% +4.4 | 20.6% −11.6 |
Provincial averages computed across the 577 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Previous election · FR LEG_2024
Detailed result · FR LEG_2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arthur DELAPORTE Elected | Left (NFP) | 19,662 | 42.3 | — |
| Josseline LIBAN | RN and allies | 11,999 | 25.8 | — |
| Camille BROU | LR and allies | 7,159 | 15.4 | — |
| Gregory BERKOVICZ | Centre (Ensemble) | 6,503 | 14.0 | — |
| Cédric BAZINCOURT | Sovereignists | 566 | 1.2 | — |
| Christophe GARCIA | Far left | 547 | 1.2 | — |
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Calvados — 1ère circonscriptionLR and allies Safe seatOpen →
- Calvados — 3ème circonscriptionRN and allies Safe seatOpen →
- Calvados — 4ème circonscriptionRN and allies Toss-upOpen →
- Calvados — 6ème circonscriptionCentre (Ensemble) Toss-upOpen →
- Orne — 3ème circonscriptionLR and allies Safe seatOpen →
- Calvados — 5ème circonscriptionRN and allies Safe seatOpen →
- Last model run
- Cycle
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