Riding profile

Calvados — 5ème circonscription

Circonscription française — Calvados

The question

Calvados — 5ème circonscription: will Centre (Ensemble) lose this seat to RN and allies?

Editorial read

Calvados — 5ème circonscription, a mixed riding in Calvados, elected a member with the centrist bloc in the previous cycle, with a 0-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the RN and its allies ahead at 36% vote share, against 24% for the united left, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Bertrand BOUYX

Sits with Centre (Ensemble)

Current forecast

RN and allies

Safe

Probability: 96%
Mean margin (pts): 12.1
P(close race): 6%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

RN and allies 35.7%
Left (NFP) 23.6%
Centre (Ensemble) 19.5%
LR and allies 17.3%
Others 2.0%
Sovereignists 1.2%
Far left 0.6%

In context

How this riding stacks up

	RN and allies	Left (NFP)	Centre (Ensemble)	LR and allies
HereCalvados — 5ème circonscription	35.7%	23.6%	19.5%	17.3%
Provincial averageCalvados	34.8% +0.9	26.1% −2.5	23.8% −4.3	15.1% +2.2
National averageFrance	36.0% −0.3	29.5% −5.9	20.6% −1.0	12.2% +5.1

Provincial averages computed across the 577 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · FR LEG_2024

Won by

Centre (Ensemble)

Margin

0.0 pts

Margin shift vs current projection

+12.1 pts

Detailed result · FR LEG_2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate	Party	Votes	%	Occupation
Philippe CHAPRON	RN and allies	21,001	31.9	—
Bertrand BOUYX Elected	Centre (Ensemble)	16,208	24.6	—
Thomas DUPONT-FEDERICI	Left (NFP)	16,124	24.5	—
Cédric NOUVELOT	LR and allies	10,655	16.2	—
Jean-Alexis GÉREUX	Sovereignists	775	1.2	—
Tony DESCLOS	RN and allies	662	1.0	—
Isabelle PELTRE	Far left	488	0.7	—

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run: July 11, 2026
Cycle: fr_leg_next