Riding profile
Calvados — 1ère circonscription
The question
Calvados — 1ère circonscription: a safe seat for the LR right?
Editorial read
Calvados — 1ère circonscription, a mixed riding in Calvados, elected a member with the LR right in the previous cycle, with a 0-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the LR right ahead at 42% vote share, against 32% for the united left, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
Joël BRUNEAU
Sits with LR and allies
Current forecast
LR and allies
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 9.7
- P(close race)
- 1%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| LR and allies | Left (NFP) | RN and allies | Others | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereCalvados — 1ère circonscription | 42.0% | 32.3% | 22.9% | 1.9% |
| Provincial averageCalvados | 15.1% +27.0 | 26.1% +6.2 | 34.8% −11.9 | 2.0% −0.1 |
| National averageFrance | 12.2% +29.8 | 29.5% +2.8 | 36.0% −13.1 | 3.9% −2.0 |
Provincial averages computed across the 577 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Previous election · FR LEG_2024
Detailed result · FR LEG_2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joël BRUNEAU Elected | LR and allies | 22,596 | 43.1 | — |
| Emma FOURREAU | Left (NFP) | 18,250 | 34.8 | — |
| Ludivine DAOUDI | RN and allies | 10,458 | 19.9 | — |
| Matéo LELOUP | RN and allies | 604 | 1.1 | — |
| Pierre CASEVITZ | Far left | 510 | 1.0 | — |
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Calvados — 6ème circonscriptionCentre (Ensemble) Toss-upOpen →
- Calvados — 2ème circonscriptionLeft (NFP) Safe seatOpen →
- Calvados — 5ème circonscriptionRN and allies Safe seatOpen →
- Calvados — 3ème circonscriptionRN and allies Safe seatOpen →
- Orne — 3ème circonscriptionLR and allies Safe seatOpen →
- Calvados — 4ème circonscriptionRN and allies Toss-upOpen →
- Last model run
- Cycle
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