Riding profile

Calvados — 3ème circonscription

Circonscription française — Calvados

The question

Calvados — 3ème circonscription: will Centre (Ensemble) lose this seat to RN and allies?

Editorial read

Calvados — 3ème circonscription, a mixed riding in Calvados, elected a member with the centrist bloc in the previous cycle, with a 0-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the RN and its allies ahead at 44% vote share, against 31% for the centrist bloc, and the riding remains competitive.

Sitting member

Jérémie PATRIER-LEITUS

Sits with Centre (Ensemble)

Current forecast

RN and allies

Competitive

Probability
93%
Mean margin (pts)
12.6
P(close race)
15%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • RN and allies 43.9%
  • Centre (Ensemble) 31.3%
  • Left (NFP) 18.1%
  • Sovereignists 2.1%
  • Others 2.0%
  • Far left 1.3%
  • LR and allies 1.2%

In context

How this riding stacks up

RN and allies Centre (Ensemble) Left (NFP) Sovereignists
HereCalvados — 3ème circonscription 43.9%31.3%18.1%2.1%
Provincial averageCalvados 34.8% +9.1 23.8% +7.5 26.1% −8.0 1.5% +0.6
National averageFrance 36.0% +7.9 20.6% +10.8 29.5% −11.4 1.6% +0.5

Provincial averages computed across the 577 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · FR LEG_2024

Won by
Centre (Ensemble)
Margin
0.0 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+12.6 pts

Detailed result · FR LEG_2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Edouard FAUVAGE RN and allies 21,575 41.1 —
Jérémie PATRIER-LEITUS Elected Centre (Ensemble) 19,144 36.5 —
Olivier TRUFFAUT Left (NFP) 9,959 19.0 —
Steven MAFIODO Sovereignists 1,080 2.1 —
Michel LANGEVIN Far left 732 1.4 —
Thierry Paul VALETTE Others 12 0.0 —

Around the region

Nearby ridings

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Last model run
Cycle
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